The chain reaction triggered by the global DRAM shortage is gradually turning DIY PC building culture into a "luxury." With the memory supercycle and AI chip production capacity competition, graphics cards may once again be extremely scarce in the first half of 2026. For gamers who need to build a PC now, this might be the last window of opportunity for low prices?
According to recent reports from multiple sources, including the supply chain, Nvidia plans to cut production capacity of its next-generation GeForce RTX 50 series graphics cards by 30% to 40% in the first half of 2026. The models reportedly most affected are the RTX 5070 Ti and RTX 5060 Ti 16GB versions.
With the soaring price of DRAM chips, the cost of video memory is also rising sharply. Nvidia will likely allocate more video memory chips to AI servers. Nvidia is clearly not playing games anymore; they're saying gaming isn't profitable.
Many people are worried that this large-scale production cut will affect the price of 50-series graphics cards in the next two or three months. My personal analysis is that this is unlikely. The production cut is due to both the rising price of DRAM chips and reduced demand. High memory prices have significantly impacted gamers' willingness to build new PCs. The 50% drop in global motherboard sales is the best proof of this. Nvidia producing too many graphics cards will only exacerbate the inventory pressure on distributors. Therefore, Nvidia's production cuts are primarily aimed at maximizing profits from AI, and secondly, preventing a price collapse in the 50-series graphics cards due to an oversupply of gaming GPUs, especially given the already precarious state of hard drive prices.
However, it's worth noting that there's already a shortage of graphics cards on the market. Will graphics card prices surge again? For those planning to buy a graphics card or waiting for a price drop in 2026, is now the best time to buy?
Key reasons for the production cuts:
1. A comprehensive memory shortage: Not only is GDDR7 memory in short supply, but all types of memory, including GDDR6 and DDR5, are also unavailable! GDDR6 memory prices have jumped 28%-33% in the past three months, with SK Hynix even stating that its 2026 production capacity is completely sold out. Nvidia is truly facing a "can't cook without rice" situation;
2. Profit-first strategy: Limited memory resources are prioritized for the more profitable RTX PRO professional cards and high-end consumer cards (such as the RTX 5080). After all, the profit doubles when the same memory is installed on expensive cards, making the mid-range consumer series the "sacrificial lamb." A devastating blow to gamers:
• The disappearance of mid-range 16GB VRAM cards: The RTX 5060 Ti 16GB was a must-have for AAA games (8GB VRAM is already insufficient for modern games, prone to stuttering and frame drops). Production cuts will force players to either buy a "crippled" 8GB version or grit their teeth and spend more on a high-end card;
• Double whammy of shortages and price hikes: AMD has already raised graphics card prices (some models by 300-600 yuan). Nvidia's production cuts are essentially to leave room for future price increases. Retail prices are already unusually high, and the cost of building a PC in 2026 will inevitably soar;
• Upgrade plans ruined: The release of the RTX 50 SUPER series may be shelved. Users upgrading older platforms may face a "no cards to replace" predicament, and may even have to flock to the second-hand market to face the risks of mining cards.
The chain reaction triggered by the global DRAM shortage is gradually turning DIY PC building culture into a "luxury." With the memory supercycle and AI chip production capacity competition, graphics cards may once again be extremely scarce in the first half of 2026. For gamers who need to build a PC now, this might be the last window of opportunity for low prices?
